The hypotheses we have formulated are based on data collection and hands-on research. We do not believe any one action has contributed to the expansion of the lake, rather a combination of multiple changes over time.

  • Land cover/land use changes increase surface runoff into lakes
  • Lake water level rise due to increased lake bed sedimentation
  • Regional and local hydro-climatic changes
  • An increase in moisture in the lake area due to increased SSTs surrounding the lake basin
  • An increase in fresh water production in the area due to increased horizontal rain produced mainly by orographic cloud formation above the surrounding mountains and forests

We believe that global climate change has greatly affected the regional climate surrounding the island of Hispaniola. As the levels of greenhouse gases increase, global temperatures rise with them. Warmer air means a higher atmospheric water vapor concentration, affecting the global energy balance and triggering more frequent and substantial rainfall and catastrophic weather events.

Global climate change is affecting the circulation of the atmospheres and oceans all over the world. Regionally, hurricanes in the Caribbean are becoming more frequent and intense, bringing more rain with them. This has been causing more frequent flooding for lakes in this area.

A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis tested with Atmospheric Modeling: Preliminary Results April 2004 (Lowest Point) and 1995 (Shrinking Period):
Topography (Top left); Total surface precipitation change 1995-2004 (Top right); Wind convergence (Low-left), and Total liquid water content change between 700-1500 meter elevation (Low-right)

A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis tested with Atmospheric Modeling: Preliminary Results April 2010 (Growth period) and 1995 (Shrinking period):
Topography (Top left); Total surface precipitation change 2010-1995 (Top right); Wind convergence (Low-left), and Total liquid water content change between 700-1500 meter elevation (Low-right)